Richard H. Thaler, a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and co-author of the best selling book Nudge, set out to with a former student to investigate their hunch that teams overvalue picking early and pay too much for top draft picks, including trading other picks.

And the results matched their theory, Thaler told the audience at IMCA’s annual conference in National Harbor, Md. on Monday. As an example, look to the Washington Redskins this year, he said. That team had the sixth spot and traded with the St. Louis Rams for the second spot, moving up four picks.

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