Are you pessimistic or are you optimistic about the Supreme Court's June decision to basically uphold all of PPACA? What is your plan in this sea of personal and corporate uncertainty?
While you may be wallowing in doubt, allow that resiliency you have to kick in and raise you up. Here are reasons to believe PPACA will be gone in its current iteration by 2014.
National debt
We cannot afford it because we have this nasty national debt. Politicians will be forced to reckon with the incredible cost of this law. I still remember the head of the Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan financial scorer of congressional bills, said in 2011 that PPACA will bankrupt the country.
We all know we're headed for a financial cliff like lemmings to the sea, but did you know that congressional plans to reign in our national debt - which is flirting with 100% of GDP - are based on GDP assumptions around 3% growth? When first quarter GDP numbers were released our economy grew a whopping 1.9%. As you read this column, second quarter GDP numbers should be out. Chances are they are anemic, like so many quarters over the past several years.
We need to grow the economy at around 3% to remain solvent. The Affordable Care Act along with its incredible infrastructure, hundreds of new federal agencies, unworkable and unintelligible language will exacerbate the rise in health care costs and hasten national economic demise.
Voter opinion
Many voters don't like this law. The Court's decision upholding its constitutionality only inflamed those voters' anger. A cross section of credible national polls (Rasmussen, Kaiser Family Foundation) suggests a majority of likely voters disapprove of PPACA. Voter resentment will bear down on the congressional and presidential election this November.
If you're a conservative, the high court's decision is a gift to rally the base, and support for conservative candidates who will run for office this fall.
Pendulum effect
The pendulum effect, in this case, suggests that radical legislation or tactics are subject to a big swing in public opinion. The pendulum must swing to the right commensurate with its original swing to the left.
Eventually public opinion and the political process will land the pendulum somewhere in the middle. This more moderate health care reform law will eventually come forth through the ebb and flow of our national political process.
A lot can and will happen between now and Election Day. A lot can and will happen between Election Day and January 2014. Things will change. They always do. Common sense will replace political nonsense. It always does over time.
I will be taking a forward-thinking position in this column in the coming months. My goal is to lead your thought process into safer pastures where employer needs are great and going unmet. You will have a role.
Davidson, CEBS, is founder of websites
